BIRTHS

Birth numbers in Australia are at all-time highs and in 2016 (just released figures) there were more than 311,000 births registered in Australia – a new record.

Birth numbers have increased rapidly from the mid-2000s, and since 2008 they have been generally above 300,000 per annum.

Much of the recent increase was driven by the number of registrations in Victoria up from 73,568 in 2015 to 82,892 in 2016. Births actually fell in NSW (to 96,083) and remained steady in Qld (at 61,841) over the same time period.

The overall lift in births coincides with the era of strong overseas migration to Australia.  Plus of course our recent baby bonus.

Many new women migrants are of child bearing age – the median age of new migrants to Australia is just 26.5 years – and the overall lift in the overseas intake is having its impact on births.

Plus more bums of seats are important when it comes to housing demand.

“Ponzi on”  that’s what I say.

So it looks like we are set to continue with our high migration intake – especially given the need to keep up the high level of housing construction and now revving up the public infrastructure boom which will mean even more bubs..

Bringing it down to a more provincial level the top ten ‘baby’ suburbs in Queensland are:

Queensland top-ten birth suburbs in 2016

Ormeau 1,912
Springfield-Redbank area 1,706
Springwood-Kingston 1,337
Brown Plains 1,302
North Lakes 1,285
Forest Lake 1,188
The Hills District (Pine Rivers) 1,090
Caboolture 1,054
Rocklea 1,006
Chermside 988

Chermside is an interesting 10th spot; it might actually be the case that families with children will move into apartments.

But the statistics are against us here, for example, only 3% of Australian families with children at home actually live in an apartment according the 2016 Census. The figures are better for inner city locales with inner Sydney 16%, inner Melbourne and Brisbane at 8% each and just 4% for inner Perth.

And the current Qld trends aren’t too flash neither with just 1,375 new births in 2016 across all 23 inner Brisbane suburbs.  The only three inner Brisbane burbs to make three figures include New Farm (128 births); Bowen Hills (125 births) and Kelvin Grove (123 births).

Makes me think – with close to 50% of our recent new housing starts being medium to high-rise apartments – that we are building the wrong stock and then when it comes to the actual apartments themselves, they often have a poor local market match.

Until next time,

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Michael Matusik

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