HOUSING NEED

Further to yesterday’s postAHURI, a national independent research network, undertakes regular housing-orientated studies.  Their reports are subject to strict peer review.

They have recently released a report which they claim, for the first time in Australia, provides a reliable and consistent method for assessing housing need.

According to this report – which you can read herehousing need is defined as: the aggregate of households unable to access market provided housing or requiring some form of housing assistance in the private rental market to avoid a position of rental stress.

The key findings include:

  • They estimate the current housing need in Australia to be 1.334 million households (just under 14 % of households), and this is forecast to rise to 1.524 million households within the next five years (2022).
  • Most states/territories are expected to see deterioration in housing affordability over the next five years. There are some exceptions, however, including Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
  • Almost 373,000 households are currently estimated to be in housing need in New South Wales (13% of the households); 291,000 in Victoria (12%) and some 381,000 or 20% of the population in Queensland!
  • The upside for Queensland is that the degree of housing stress is expected to improve in coming years, with the number of households in housing need projected to fall to 307,000 or by 19% (or some 74,200 households) between 2017 and 2022. See the table below.
  • However, there is a cloud behind this silver lining. Most of the improvement is due to less rental stress (some 44,600 or 60% of the 74,200 improvement).  This is largely due to an increase in housing supply.  In short, new housing supply is predicted to exceed housing demand, across much of Queensland, over the next five years.
  • Overall, the results reveal the extent of the shortfall in affordable housing, now and moving forward, and the additional pressure placed on the housing assistance budget due to the growth in households requiring support in the private rental market.

Total housing need estimates

State or territory 2017 2022 forecast Change 2017 to 2022
No. % ¹ No. No. %
NSW 372,900 13% 589,900 217,000 58%
Vic 291,400 12% 337,200 45,800 16%
Qld 381,300 20% 307,100 -74,200 -19%
SA 103,700 14% 100,700 -3,000 -3%
WA 132,000 12% 137,500 5,500 4%
TAS 31,400 14% 28,900 -2,500 -8%
NT 8,200 10% 8,900 700 9%
ACT 12,600 8% 13,700 1,100 9%
Australia 1,333,500 14% 1,523,900 190,400 14%

¹ Total households as at 2017

For more about AHURI go here.

Keen to hear your thoughts.

Until next time,

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Michael Matusik

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