PROPERTY CYCLE: CREAM V CORE
In previous Missive posts this week we found out that the recovery and upswing phases of the housing cycle take between 2 and 3 years to play out, whilst the downturn and stagnation phases take much longer, typically between 4 and 5 years to run their course.
We also found that a third of the sales or building activity that takes place during the cycle occurs during the recovery/upswing and two-thirds happens in the downturn and stagnation phases.
And this is what I want to discuss today.
There is always a housing market. People buy and sell due to a range of reasons that aren’t dependent on the property cycle. Believe it or not, I estimate that, eight out of ten Australian households don’t give a damn about the market’s machinations.
But too many property operators are dependent on the ‘cream’ – the 30-odd precent lift in sales/building volume that happens during the recovery and upswing phases (see A in the graphic below) and they don’t target their product/offer to the ‘core’ market – that 65% (see B in our graphic) – a market which is always here.
Property investors make this mistake to – buying at the wrong stages of the cycle (and as a result often paying too much) and importantly buying the ‘good time’ product, rather than assets which have wide resale appeal and suit the ‘core’ market. This, for mine, will become increasingly important, as the next 25 years, I think, will much different than the last decade or two.
I will close out this week by saying that if your area of interest is close to, or has passed it’s current market peak, then that isn’t bad news but an opportunity.
And if you want to better understand your ‘core’ market’s characteristics then we might be able to help you.
Email me on email@example.com to establish a consultancy brief and quote.
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Until next time,