Supply v Demand #2

Following on from last week’s post – revisit here – this week I have looked at the state of play for new housing supply and underlying demand for south east Queensland.

Two tables are included, the first looks at the situation by major region – inner Brisbane (within 5km of the CBD); middle Brisbane (between 5 and 20km); outer suburbs (20 to 50km) and the outer conurbation (50km+) – and the second table, by local authority area.

The LGA table is at the end of the post in the Missive extra area.

Table 1: Underlying dwelling demand versus actual dwelling supply  

LGA Underlying demand Dwelling supply Status of new housing supply
Inner Brisbane 19,657 21,350 1,693 9%
Middle Brisbane 16,809 23,426 6,617 39%
Outer suburbs 39,734 43,035 3,301 8%
Outer conurbation 47,601 42,366 -5,235 -11%
Total SEQ 123,801 130,177 6,376 5%

Some comments

1. Inner Brisbane’s supply overhang is almost absorbed.  For more go here.

2. There is too much of the wrong stock across Brisbane’s middle ring suburbs. Think five + storey apartment product in locations without high enough local amenity and infrastructure provision to offset this building density.

There is a need for more infill housing; boutique townhouse or terrace projects and the old fashion three storey six packs but only in the right locations and with a very high degree of market match.

For help here, visit projectadvice.com.au

3. Overall the outer suburbs are keeping up with demand, but it isn’t an even spread. Logan and Moreton Bay are struggling, whilst Ipswich and Redlands have enough registered new stock for the time being.  See the Missive extra table below.

4. The outer conurbation, across the board, is struggling with new dwelling supply.  Again see the Missive extra table below.

Missive extra

The following table comes from the Matusik database, using information from the ABS and Queensland Treasury and is based on the last five financial years being 2014 to 2018.

Underlying demand based on 2.5 to 2.9 people per dwelling depending on relevant LGA and dwelling supply is based on total dwelling registrations.

Table 2: Underlying dwelling demand versus actual dwelling supply

LGA Underlying demand Dwelling supply Status of new housing supply
Brisbane (C) 36,466 44,776 8,310 23%
Gold Coast (C) 24,468 21,508 -2,960 -12%
Ipswich (C) 10,082 11,599 1,517 15%
Lockyer Valley (R) 1,349 737 -612 -45%
Logan (C) 8,894 8,877 -17 0%
Moreton Bay (R) 17,440 17,582 142 1%
Noosa (S) 1,264 798 -466 -37%
Redland (C) 3,318 4,977 1,659 50%
Scenic Rim (R) 1,449 460 -989 -68%
Somerset (R) 1,068 403 -665 -62%
Sunshine Coast (R) 14,634 13,281 -1,353 -9%
Toowoomba (R) 3,369 5,179 1,810 54%
Total SEQ 123,801 130,177 6,376 5%

Until next time,

Michael Matusik

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