SEQ dwelling cycle

There is a lot of noise about the state of the SEQ housing market at present, with some claiming a pending boom, whilst others saying it is likely to remain tough.

I am leaning towards the later.

The aim of this missive is to help ground truth matters and provide you with some key housing market trendlines for south east Queensland.

More of this stuff will be coming your way over the next few weeks.

This communiqué holds four charts plus a missive extra table at the end of the post.


A quick summary

  • End prices for both houses and attached dwellings closely follow sales volumes.
  • SEQ dwellings prices haven’t grown much in recent years, but they aren’t likely to fall sharply unless sale volumes plummet.  With increasing interstate migration that is unlikely. Every cloud has a silver lining!
  • However, weaker sale volumes strongly suggests that there is little dwelling price growth on the SEQ horizon for the next year or two.
  • This is particularly the case given the increase in stock advertised for sale, which is up 8% on this time last year and is 25% higher than it was five years ago.  This includes off-plan, newly completed stock and resales.
  • Overall SEQ has about 8.5 month’s supply currently for sale, which based on our metrics, suggest that prices are likely to remain flat.

Matusik supply v demand metrics

Our modelling suggests that when supply for sale is under 3 months demand, prices increase and sometimes quickly.  Between 3 and 6 month’s supply, prices often rise but moderately. When the amount of stock for sale equates to between 6 and 12 month’s demand, prices remain flat or decline slightly and when over 12 month’s supply is available to buy, prices typically fall and sometimes hard.

To find out more about this stuff, why not attend a Matusik Master Class.

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Until next time,

Michael Matusik

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Matusik Missive Extra
South East Queensland – Dwelling Sales Cycle

Calendar Years Detached dwelling sales Attached dwelling sales
No $ median No $ median
2000 59,042 $155,000 24,578 $157,000
2001 77,148 $179,000 35,943 $166,000
2002 87,454 $221,000 45,467 $205,000
2003 89,179 $310,000 46,884 $255,000
2004 61,186 $328,000 31,321 $289,000
2005 60,178 $340,000 28,751 $295,000
2006 67,285 $364,000 32,090 $315,000
2007 79,331 $435,000 40,293 $360,000
2008 49,184 $410,000 23,657 $348,000
2009 59,471 $460,000 29,188 $380,000
2010 44,663 $451,000 22,267 $380,000
2011 38,134 $430,000 18,585 $369,000
2012 42,216 $440,000 22,015 $369,000
2013 41,697 $463,000 29,430 $387,000
2014 57,324 $488,000 35,754 $408,000
2015 61,562 $510,000 41,559 $425,000
2016 60,377 $530,000 35,665 $417,000
2017 57,959 $551,000 32,915 $420,000
2018 52,837 $560,000 28,679 $410,000

Matusik + DNRME QVAS.  Sales volumes calendar years.  Dec Qtr. Median prices.  Matusik estimates for 2018.  SEQ = LGA areas including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Ipswich Lockyer Valley, Logan, Moreton Bay, Noosa, Redland, Scenic Rim, Somerset, Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba (part a).