SEQ new dwelling supply
This post outlines the current state of play when it comes to new housing supply across SEQ.
This missive holds two charts plus a missive extra table at the end of the post.
Chart 1 explained
Chart 1 shows the interplay between housing demand and two measures of new dwelling supply – dwelling approvals and dwelling registrations.
Dwelling approvals (the grey line) is the beginning of the supply process. Many new dwellings that are approved – and particularly in apartment projects – are not commenced as originally planned.
A more accurate measure of actual new housing supply is a dwelling registration. This happens when the property title is transferred from the developer to the buyer and takes place at settlement. See the red line in chart 1.
For more detail see our missive extra table below.
A quick summary
- The SEQ new housing market was oversupplied between 2011and 2013. This was mainly due to too many new apartment buildings in Brisbane.
- Since 2014, however, the new apartment approvals have fallen substantially. In addition, a lot of the approved new apartment stock hasn’t started. When they actually proceed will depend on demand. I anticipate that new apartment supply in Brisbane in coming years will remain subdued.
- Whilst new dwelling registrations have increased in recent years – revisit the missive extra table – this rise is mainly for detached homes and townhouse style developments.
- The lift in dwelling starts (registrations) is also in response to mounting population growth. See chart 2 above.
One of SEQ’s big plusses – when it comes to a safety net helping keep a floor under housing values – is that the region isn’t currently oversupplied with new housing stock.
It might have been overcooked a few years ago, but that no longer is the case.
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Until next time,
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Matusik Missive Extra
South East Queensland – Underlying demand v new housing supply
Matusik + DNRME QVAS + ABS 3218.0, Regional Population Growth, Australia, various editions. Matusik estimates for 2018 population growth. SEQ = LGA areas including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Ipswich Lockyer Valley, Logan, Moreton Bay, Noosa, Redland, Scenic Rim, Somerset, Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba (part a).