The three RPs

The Qld state government have just released a new data set for SEQ which represents the stock of approved and as-yet-unconstructed multiple dwellings.

For example, where 30 townhouses were approved and 10 were constructed, the approval balance included in these results would be 20 dwellings.  These dwellings would be counted as one (1) project approval.

Material Change of Use (MCU) multiple dwelling approvals data is a good indicator of the potential supply of predominately attached dwellings in the short to medium term.

Below are 3 tables which summarise the current state of play.

Table 1: SEQ: MCU multiple dwelling approvals – 2018

Local authority Project approvals Dwelling approvals % dwellings
Brisbane 1,590 61,127 48%
Gold Coast 743 36,282 28%
Ipswich 181 2,846 2%
Lockyer Valley 36 332 0%
Logan 458 7,298 6%
Moreton Bay 232 8,123 6%
Noosa 53 924 1%
Redland 124 2,029 2%
Scenic Rim 53 349 0%
Somerset 22 41 0%
Sunshine Coast 275 7,063 6%
Toowoomba 150 1,849 1%
South East Queensland 3,917 128,263 100%
Projectadvice.com.au + Qld Govt.  Stock of approved and as -yet-unconstructed multiple dwellings.  As a June 2018.

Table 2: SEQ: MCU multiple dwelling approvals – 2011 v 2018

Local authority 2011 dwelling approvals 2018 dwelling approvals Change
Brisbane 29,240 61,127 31,887
Gold Coast 12,213 36,282 24,069
Ipswich 2,785 2,846 61
Lockyer Valley 146 332 186
Logan 3,716 7,298 3,582
Moreton Bay 4,816 8,123 3,307
Noosa 594 924 330
Redland 2,269 2,029 -240
Scenic Rim 32 349 317
Somerset 17 41 24
Sunshine Coast 3,154 7,063 3,909
Toowoomba 1,016 1,849 833
South East Queensland 59,998 128,263 68,265
Projectadvice.com.au + Qld Govt.  Stock of approved and as -yet-unconstructed multiple dwellings.  As a June 2011 v June 2018.

Table 3: SEQ: MCU multiple dwelling approvals by project size – 2018

Project size Dwelling approvals % dwellings
Under 10 dwellings 8,353 7%
11 to 20 dwellings 6,608 5%
21 to 50 dwellings 14,815 12%
51 to 100 dwellings 19,105 15%
Over 100 dwellings 79,383 62%
South East Queensland 128,263 100%
Projectadvice.com.au + Qld Govt.  Stock of approved and as -yet-unconstructed multiple dwellings.  As a June 2018.

A quick summary

  • Some 3,900 multiple dwelling projects across SEQ have been approved but still have stock yet constructed.  The amount of unconstructed stock amounts to some 128,000 dwellings.
  • By our estimates that’s in excess of ten years supply!
  • Most of this unbuilt stock is in Brisbane (inner city area mostly) and on the Gold Coast.  Revisit last week’s missive here.
  • Not surprising, there has been a huge increase in the volume of unbuilt multiple dwelling supply over the last seven years; up by 68,000 from the 60,000 count in 2011.  That’s a 113% increase.
  • Again, the biggest increases have been in Brisbane and on the Gold Coast.
  • A review of the current unbuilt supply finds that three-fifths (62%) are in larger multiple dwelling projects.

The three RPs

These MCU figures also show that many attached dwelling projects are having problems securing enough off-plan sales to start construction.

Our recent work suggests that many suffer from a poor ‘local market match’.

The three RPs are vital:

  • Right Product
  • Right Price
  • Right Promotion

Paul and I – at projectadvice.com.au – can help you get your three RPs better aligned.

Projectadvice.com.au helps developers, and those working on their behalf, deliver better housing projects.

Our advice helps reduce a project’s sales risk.

MCU defined

Multiple dwelling developments include relative’s accommodation, dual occupancies/duplexes, flats, units, townhouses, villas, apartments and includes short-term accommodation.

In addition, relocatable homes, tourist accommodation, and dwellings approved in retirement villages/facilities are included where they are self- contained.

Group accommodation where facilities are shared and purpose–built student accommodation are not included.

Until next time,

Michael Matusik

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