Past v projected population growth

I have been to several industry presentations and events over the past six months covering the housing market’s outlook.

Many of my contemporaries launch into their talk using the projected population growth figures.  I sit there wondering how close these projections are when compared to recent trends.

The table below outlines the past population growth versus the medium projected series for each local authority area from Noosa to Tweed and out to Toowoomba.

SEQld/Northern NSW:  Past vs projected annual population growth

  Population growth Difference
LGA area Past Projected No %
Brisbane (C) 19,650 12,850 -6,800 -35%
Gold Coast (C) 12,500 14,660 2,160 17%
Ipswich (C) 5,950 16,450 10,500 176%
Lockyer Valley (R) 750 770 20 3%
Logan (C) 5,550 9,050 3,500 63%
Moreton Bay (R) 10,000 10,750 750 8%
Noosa (S) 580 530 -50 -9%
Redland (C) 1,950 1,820 -130 -7%
Scenic Rim (R) 700 1,300 600 86%
Somerset (R) 550 560 10 2%
Sunshine Coast (R) 7,100 8,540 1,440 20%
Toowoomba (R) 1,680 1,680 0 0%
Tweed (S) 1,080 1,780 700 65%
Total SEQ 68,040 80,740 12,700 19%
Matusik, ABS, Qld + NSW Govt.  Past = annual average between financial 2009 and 2019. Projected = annual average medium series change between financial 2021 and 2031.

It seems to me that we have to see heaps of improvements, and on a range of fronts, if we are going to see a 20% lift in population growth across south east Queensland over the next decade.

A colleague, at the most recent function, leaned towards me during a keynote speech and declared “Tell him he’s dreaming”.

For the facts and not the fantasy, click here

I have written Ready Reckoner Reports for 11 of the 13 local government areas outlined in the table above.

Why not get the box set and save yourself 50%.  Go here

Until next time,

Michael Matusik

Site Footer