I have been to several industry presentations and events over the past six months covering the housing market’s outlook.
Many of my contemporaries launch into their talk using the projected population growth figures. I sit there wondering how close these projections are when compared to recent trends.
The table below outlines the past population growth versus the medium projected series for each local authority area from Noosa to Tweed and out to Toowoomba.
SEQld/Northern NSW: Past vs projected annual population growth
| Population growth | Difference | |||
| LGA area | Past | Projected | No | % |
| Brisbane (C) | 19,650 | 12,850 | -6,800 | -35% |
| Gold Coast (C) | 12,500 | 14,660 | 2,160 | 17% |
| Ipswich (C) | 5,950 | 16,450 | 10,500 | 176% |
| Lockyer Valley (R) | 750 | 770 | 20 | 3% |
| Logan (C) | 5,550 | 9,050 | 3,500 | 63% |
| Moreton Bay (R) | 10,000 | 10,750 | 750 | 8% |
| Noosa (S) | 580 | 530 | -50 | -9% |
| Redland (C) | 1,950 | 1,820 | -130 | -7% |
| Scenic Rim (R) | 700 | 1,300 | 600 | 86% |
| Somerset (R) | 550 | 560 | 10 | 2% |
| Sunshine Coast (R) | 7,100 | 8,540 | 1,440 | 20% |
| Toowoomba (R) | 1,680 | 1,680 | 0 | 0% |
| Tweed (S) | 1,080 | 1,780 | 700 | 65% |
| Total SEQ | 68,040 | 80,740 | 12,700 | 19% |
| Matusik, ABS, Qld + NSW Govt. Past = annual average between financial 2009 and 2019. Projected = annual average medium series change between financial 2021 and 2031. | ||||
It seems to me that we have to see heaps of improvements, and on a range of fronts, if we are going to see a 20% lift in population growth across south east Queensland over the next decade.
A colleague, at the most recent function, leaned towards me during a keynote speech and declared “Tell him he’s dreaming”.