Are we being hoodwinked when it comes to house price growth?
I have included three tables in this missive.
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Table 1: Detached house prices: Current quarterly median price |
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|
Capitals |
CoreLogic |
SQM Research |
ABS |
PriceFinder |
|
Sydney |
$840,000 |
$1,306,000 |
$885,000 |
$852,750 |
|
Melbourne |
$667,000 |
$972,750 |
$685,000 |
$670,000 |
|
Brisbane |
$497,500 |
$632,500 |
$535,000 |
$540,000 |
|
Adelaide |
$433,750 |
$519,000 |
$468,000 |
$465,000 |
|
Perth |
$437,000 |
$653,500 |
$480,000 |
$465,000 |
|
Hobart |
$474,250 |
$537,000 |
$460,000 |
$450,000 |
|
Darwin |
$388,000 |
$576,500 |
$472,000 |
$463,000 |
|
Canberra |
$311,750 |
$814,750 |
$673,750 |
$645,500 |
|
Capitals |
$622,500 |
$951,500 |
$657,000 |
$641,250 |
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Matusik, CoreLogic, SQM Research, ABS and PriceFinder. |
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Table 2: Detached house prices: Current quarterly change in median prices |
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|
Capitals |
CoreLogic |
SQM Research |
ABS |
PriceFinder |
|
Sydney |
6.2% |
2.8% |
3.6% |
-3.1% |
|
Melbourne |
6.4% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
-4.6% |
|
Brisbane |
1.8% |
2.4% |
0.7% |
-0.4% |
|
Adelaide |
0.9% |
1.2% |
-0.3% |
-1.8% |
|
Perth |
-0.9% |
0.9% |
-1.2% |
0.0% |
|
Hobart |
2.8% |
5.7% |
1.3% |
-3.2% |
|
Darwin |
-1.1% |
-2.5% |
-1.2% |
-1.5% |
|
Canberra |
3.2% |
0.3% |
-0.5% |
-9.1% |
|
Capitals |
4.2% |
3.5% |
2.4% |
-2.5% |
|
Matusik, CoreLogic, SQM Research, ABS and PriceFinder. |
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Table 3: Detached house prices: Current quarterly sales, supply and change |
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|
Capitals |
Sales |
% change |
Supply for sale |
% change |
|
Sydney |
10,340 |
0% |
30,000 |
3% |
|
Melbourne |
9,020 |
-25% |
36,200 |
4% |
|
Brisbane |
6,600 |
-8% |
31,000 |
0% |
|
Adelaide |
3,750 |
-9% |
16,400 |
3% |
|
Perth |
5,440 |
-5% |
24,400 |
-1% |
|
Hobart |
625 |
-19% |
2,140 |
-2% |
|
Darwin |
250 |
-20% |
1,920 |
-2% |
|
Canberra |
700 |
-32% |
4,530 |
7% |
|
Capitals |
36,725 |
-9% |
146,590 |
2% |
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Matusik, CoreLogic, SQM Research, ABS and PriceFinder. |
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In contrast to CoreLogic’s price growth estimations, SQM Research’s asking price index and the ABS quarterly property price index – which uses CoreLogic’s data by the way (combined with VG records) – my analysis of PriceFinder transactions are based on settled sales.
I only trust settled sales.
My barometer suggests that house values are stagnant at present, but most likely are still falling.
Of import too is that sale volumes are declining, whilst stock for sale is increasing.
Real estate is essentially all about demand versus supply.
Right now, demand is falling, and supply is rising.
But apparently house prices are accelerating.
Are we being hoodwinked?