Outlook 2020 – Part 1

Extracts from my new SEQld Quarterly Report.


The limited strength of the Queensland economy remains a constraint on the housing market. The proposed changes to the Queensland tenancy laws may also stifle housing investment.


Detached housing market strengthening. Apartment market better than most think. Limited vacant land now left for sale. Townhouse restrictions in suburban areas will limit buyer choice and negatively affect future population growth. More will age in place. The future is fewer sales, higher prices and rents, limited affordability. 

Gold Coast

Overall housing market is set to improve. New infrastructure projects will help. The area faces some serious issues regarding future detached and townhouse housing supply.  Non-local buyer and developer interest is now rising. The city has fared well post the 2018 Commonwealth Games. The Gold Coast has also considerable scale, within 600,000 permanent residents – 650,000 with Tweed area – providing a more stable economy and housing market. Like Brisbane: the future is fewer sales, higher prices and rents, limited affordability. 

Ipswich and Logan

Affordable housing markets, relative to Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Both hold a substantial proportion of SEQld’s new housing supply. More urban development, and a subsequent rise in population growth, is expected in the future; potentially expediated by the recently tightened townhouse policy in Brisbane. Rising sales volumes expected, not necessarily strong price growth.    

Lockyer Valley

Another affordable housing market when compared to Ipswich and Toowoomba. Drought conditions are currently having a negative impact on local employment. The area needs a major employment catalyst to lift local housing demand. If not, then the usual buyer leakage from Ipswich and Toowoomba will remain the major buyer segment and therefore not much change is expected in the Lockyer valley housing market in coming years. Local new housing supply is also being stymied by the high level development taxes and charges relative to end prices.  

Part 2 out tomorrow.

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