Queensland faces two elections this year – local government elections in late March and a state government election in late October.
In most cases, local government elections mean little to those in the electorate, whilst the state poll – which Labor currently holds by just four seats – is considered a more serious affair.
Many believe that Labor will lose the Queensland state election and that we bring about changes. Some think that these changes will be significant.
A change can be a good as a holiday. And after a break one often feels more confident and refreshed. There is considerable credence in this postulation.
But also, confidence is a flitting thing. Increasingly so it seems these days.
I like to go back to the numbers when confronted with such conjecture.
And the numbers suggest, that regardless of state government flavour, there is likely to be little real change on the Queensland scene.
Queensland carries substantial debt. Taxation revenue will remain fundamental regardless of party. There is very little room to ease state taxation or provide incentives.
Queensland’s taxation revenue essentially comes from four income streams. These, based on the 2019-2020 budget, are:
- 33% Property (transfers, taxation + levies)
- 28% Payroll (tax)
- 23% Motor vehicles (registration, duties + insurance)
- 10% Gambling (taxes + levies)
So, don’t expect any major property related changes.
A new government isn’t going to be able to notably reduce the cost of doing business nor are they likely to try and reduce the number of cars on Queensland roads. Quite the opposite in fact.
And with state revenue from gambling increasing by 10% per annum over recent years, expect more casinos and gaming contraptions at your local in the years to come.
Hmmm, I do wonder.