Two tables this post.
Please take 30 seconds to look at them.
|
Table 1: Detached house sales + median price |
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|
Location |
Sales |
% change |
Median $ |
% change |
|
Adelaide |
14,770 |
-10% |
$472,000 |
2% |
|
Brisbane region |
29,550 |
-11% |
$545,000 |
0% |
|
Canberra |
4,130 |
-13% |
$690,000 |
1% |
|
Darwin |
1,120 |
-5% |
$485,000 |
-3% |
|
Gold Coast |
6,930 |
-14% |
$650,000 |
0% |
|
Hobart |
3,690 |
-14% |
$460,000 |
8% |
|
Melbourne |
46,910 |
-19% |
$714,000 |
-5% |
|
Perth |
23,800 |
-7% |
$475,000 |
-3% |
|
Sunshine Coast |
5,010 |
-11% |
$605,000 |
0% |
|
Sydney |
40,680 |
-6% |
$890,000 |
-6% |
|
Matusik + Price Finder. Year ending September 2019. % change on year before. |
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|
Table 2: Detached house sales by price group |
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|
Location |
< $500k |
$500k-$750k |
$750k-$1m |
>$1m |
|
Adelaide |
55% |
26% |
13% |
6% |
|
Brisbane region |
41% |
31% |
18% |
10% |
|
Canberra |
11% |
40% |
35% |
14% |
|
Darwin |
53% |
37% |
8% |
2% |
|
Gold Coast |
22% |
36% |
26% |
16% |
|
Hobart |
57% |
27% |
13% |
3% |
|
Melbourne |
13% |
35% |
26% |
27% |
|
Perth |
54% |
23% |
13% |
10% |
|
Sunshine Coast |
23% |
44% |
23% |
10% |
|
Sydney |
9% |
21% |
27% |
43% |
|
Matusik + Price Finder. Year ending September 2019. |
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Most will focus on the price column in the first table and then spend most of their time reviewing the change in price. Many will take sides too, either agreeing with or rejecting, my summary of the annual change in the median price data.
But few will focus on the sales volumes in table 1 and even less will spend much time – in my experience – on the second table at all.
Yet, sales volume and especially volumes by price group (and product type) are the key elements to understanding a housing market.
Our minds have been hijacked by price and especially its annual, monthly and even, now, daily movement.
Most online databases promote price. The name of my preferred sales database – Price Finder – speaks volumes.
When my business undertakes market analysis – or when Paul Broad and I are commissioned to provide project advice – we always spend considerable time understanding, and illustrating, the size of the relevant housing segment.
You need to understand the size of your market, what market share you can realistically achieve and your competitive set.
The aim should be to reduce your sales risk.
It’s rare to be able to grow a market. At times it can be done but almost always at high expense.
Many in the property sales space will tell you that they have a wide funnel. But in reality, it is very uncommon.
Its best to know the market’s limitations from the get-go and plan accordingly.