One chart and two tables this post.
Chart 1 tells me that population movements between states and territories was on a rapid ascent before COVID-19. The chart also shows that interstate population movements are cyclical. Moves are influenced by the economy, demographics and also perception.
Also, the chart shows that when things get hard, economically, interstate movements slow down as we assumingly bunker down until things monetary wise improve. Chart 1 also shows that the bounce back is often as steep the previous decline.
Table 1
Australia: Population growth by state/territory
| State/Territory | Total population | Annual population growth | |
| Total population growth | Net interstate migration | ||
| New South Wales | 8,089,817 | 109,649 | -22,063 |
| Victoria | 6,596,039 | 134,020 | 12,198 |
| Queensland | 5,094,510 | 85,086 | 22,831 |
| South Australia | 1,751,963 | 15,436 | -3,958 |
| Western Australia | 2,621,509 | 27,328 | -6,451 |
| Tasmania | 534,457 | 6,159 | 2,008 |
| Northern Territory | 245,929 | -1,129 | -4,371 |
| ACT | 426,704 | 6,325 | -194 |
| Australia | 25,365,571 | 382,883 | 0 |
| Matusik + ABS. Fiscal 2019. | |||
Table 1 tells me that Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania currently attract more interstate arrivals than departures, whilst in the other states and territories more people leave than arrive.
Table 2
Top 25 Australian LGAs ranked by total internal population growth
| Local Authority Area, State and Rank | Annual population growth | ||||
| Total growth | Internal migration | % total growth | |||
| 1 | Wyndham (C) | Vic | 15,120 | 6,392 | 42% |
| 2 | Sunshine Coast (R) | Qld | 8,591 | 6,047 | 70% |
| 3 | Casey (C) | Vic | 13,429 | 5,766 | 43% |
| 4 | Camden (A) | NSW | 7,408 | 5,573 | 75% |
| 5 | Gold Coast (C) | Qld | 13,990 | 5,329 | 38% |
| 6 | Ipswich (C) | Qld | 8,739 | 5,317 | 61% |
| 7 | Moreton Bay (R) | Qld | 10,009 | 5,186 | 52% |
| 8 | Melton (C) | Vic | 8,177 | 4,849 | 59% |
| 9 | Greater Geelong (C) | Vic | 6,705 | 3,796 | 57% |
| 10 | Cardinia (S) | Vic | 5,042 | 3,204 | 64% |
| 11 | Hume (C) | Vic | 9,048 | 3,129 | 35% |
| 12 | The Hills Shire (A) | NSW | 5,630 | 3,048 | 54% |
| 13 | Logan (C) | Qld | 7,864 | 2,549 | 32% |
| 14 | Swan (C) | WA | 4,020 | 1,808 | 45% |
| 15 | Armadale (C) | WA | 3,190 | 1,616 | 51% |
| 16 | Whittlesea (C) | Vic | 6,891 | 1,556 | 23% |
| 17 | Port Macquarie-Hastings (A) | NSW | 1,463 | 1,418 | 97% |
| 18 | Brisbane (C) | Qld | 23,044 | 1,354 | 6% |
| 19 | Wanneroo (C) | WA | 4,628 | 1,326 | 29% |
| 20 | Maitland (C) | NSW | 2,062 | 1,222 | 59% |
| 21 | Fraser Coast (R) | Qld | 1,264 | 1,198 | 95% |
| 22 | Mitchell (S) | Vic | 1,784 | 1,197 | 67% |
| 23 | Ballarat (C) | Vic | 2,181 | 1,187 | 54% |
| 24 | Serpentine-Jarrahdale (S) | WA | 1,635 | 1,126 | 69% |
| 25 | Shoalhaven (C) | NSW | 1,380 | 1,071 | 78% |
| Matusik + ABS. Fiscal 2019. | |||||
Table 2 outlines the top 25 local authority areas across Australia ranked by total net internal population growth during fiscal 2019. Many of these areas either hug the coastline and/or in the outer conurbations of our four largest cities. Only a couple are inland regional towns.
My comments
Once the current restrictions are lifted it is reasonable to accept that movements between states and territories will continue.
It is also rational to assume that – and if the household has the means – the want to live in a more desirable location has risen over recent weeks. This might be more impulse or reaction rather than a sustainable trend, but such action could add further momentum to the recent escalation shown in chart 1.
It is also fair to accept that any continuance regarding interstate migration will follow the same established settlement patterns as shown in tables 1 and 2.