This concluding post in the population missive series includes two charts and two tables. Click on these links if you missed part 1 and part 2 of this short series.
Chart 1 tells me that Australia’s baby boom, albeit at a slowing pace, continues (see the red line and left-hand scale on chart 1) despite the removal of the baby bonus a few years back. Deaths are also rising (grey line and right-hand scale) due mostly to our aging population. As a result, natural increase – see chart 2 – is on the slide. Natural increase is simply births minus deaths.
Table 1
Australia: Population growth by state/territory
| State/Territory | Total population | Annual population growth | |
| Total population growth | Natural
increase |
||
| New South Wales | 8,089,817 | 109,649 | 45,557 |
| Victoria | 6,596,039 | 134,020 | 37,343 |
| Queensland | 5,094,510 | 85,086 | 29,882 |
| South Australia | 1,751,963 | 15,436 | 5,335 |
| Western Australia | 2,621,509 | 27,328 | 18,064 |
| Tasmania | 534,457 | 6,159 | 1,159 |
| Northern Territory | 245,929 | -1,129 | 2,524 |
| ACT | 426,704 | 6,325 | 3,409 |
| Australia | 25,365,571 | 382,883 | 143,281 |
| Matusik + ABS. Fiscal 2019. | |||
Table 1 tells me that natural increase is largely concentrated in our bigger urban areas – the Sydney region, Melbourne, south east Queensland and Perth.
Table 2
Top 25 Australian LGAs ranked by natural increase
| Local Authority Area, State and Rank | Annual population growth | ||||
| Total growth | Natural increase | % total growth | |||
| 1 | Brisbane (C) | Qld | 23,044 | 8,244 | 36% |
| 2 | Blacktown (C) | NSW | 8,373 | 4,380 | 52% |
| 3 | Wyndham (C) | Vic | 15,120 | 4,039 | 27% |
| 4 | Casey (C) | Vic | 13,429 | 3,823 | 28% |
| 5 | Canterbury-Bankstown (A) | NSW | 4,431 | 3,518 | 79% |
| 6 | Logan (C) | Qld | 7,864 | 3,465 | 44% |
| 7 | Gold Coast (C) | Qld | 13,990 | 3,121 | 22% |
| 8 | Moreton Bay (R) | Qld | 10,009 | 2,897 | 29% |
| 9 | Cumberland (A) | NSW | 4,922 | 2,871 | 58% |
| 10 | Hume (C) | Vic | 9,048 | 2,698 | 30% |
| 11 | Ipswich (C) | Qld | 8,739 | 2,570 | 29% |
| 12 | Parramatta (C) | NSW | 6,132 | 2,483 | 40% |
| 13 | Liverpool (C) | NSW | 4,560 | 2,478 | 54% |
| 14 | Whittlesea (C) | Vic | 6,891 | 2,270 | 33% |
| 15 | Wanneroo (C) | WA | 4,628 | 2,212 | 48% |
| 16 | Penrith (C) | NSW | 4,030 | 2,187 | 54% |
| 17 | Melton (C) | Vic | 8,177 | 1,985 | 24% |
| 18 | Campbelltown (C) (NSW) | NSW | 3,013 | 1,799 | 60% |
| 19 | Sydney (C) | NSW | 6,241 | 1,594 | 26% |
| 20 | Swan (C) | WA | 4,020 | 1,557 | 39% |
| 21 | Camden (A) | NSW | 7,408 | 1,531 | 21% |
| 22 | Stirling (C) | WA | 905 | 1,501 | 166% |
| 23 | Brimbank (C) | Vic | 779 | 1,495 | 192% |
| 24 | Townsville (C) | Qld | 1,013 | 1,371 | 135% |
| 25 | Moreland (C) | Vic | 3,987 | 1,364 | 34% |
| Matusik + ABS. Fiscal 2019. | |||||
Table 2 outlines the top 25 local authority areas across Australia ranked by natural increase during fiscal 2019. Most of these areas are outer suburbs or in the outer conurbations of our four largest cities. Townsville is a rare exception.
My comments
Australia’s fertility rate is currently 1.7, which is below 2.1. Here 2.1 is commonly referred to as the replacement rate. So, without overseas migration Australia’s population would, in due course, start to shrink. Many might think that is a good thing. Sadly, our economy – as it is currently structured – won’t like it at all. Nor would most people’s bank balance.
Maybe part of any COVID-19 recovery package should include the reinstatement of the baby bonus?
If not, then further pressure will build to increase our overseas migrant intake. As outlined last week we will need immigrants to help keep our economy afloat and to help cover our debt.
Whatever the outcome, most births will continue to take place in our suburbs and increasing young families will live further away from downtown. There is nothing wrong with this. What’s wrong is trying to change this trend. How we plan for, and handle this growth, is what really matters.