Future work

A somewhat contentious post given recent events and COVID19’s potential impact on employment.

Last year the Australian Government’s released new five-year forecasts for employment via its Labour Market Information Portal.  Heavy caveats have subsequently been added to this dataset.

We have been using this information for some time and my regular review of the statistics have shown them to quite accurate.

So I have posted this information to your consideration and potential use.

I do think that what they suggest is still likely to come true.  More so the distribution of new jobs rather than the actual quantum as there will no doubt be changes to Australia’s job creation capability over the short-term given COVID19-related impacts and restrictions.

So maybe ignore the actual number of projected jobs and focus on the potential future distribution of new work.

Four tables follow.

Table 1: Forecast job growth over next five years by state and territory

State or territory Number of new jobs % Australia
New South Wales 368,000 34%
Victoria 330,000 30%
Queensland 212,000 20%
South Australia 49,000 5%
Western Australia 81,000 8%
Tasmania 14,000 1%
Northern Territory 7,000 1%
Australian Capital Territory 14,000 1%
Australia 1,075,000 100%
Capital Cities 797,000 74%
Regional Australia 278,000 26%
Matusik + lmip.gov.au.  Employment projections for five years to May 2024.

Table 1 tells me: that most new jobs with be created in the three major eastern states and three-quarters of this new work is expected to be in our capitals.

Table 2: Forecast job growth over next five years by capital city

Capital city Number of new jobs % Capitals
Sydney 270,000 33%
Melbourne 286,000 36%
Brisbane 101,000 13%
Adelaide 43,000 5%
Perth 70,000 9%
Hobart 8,000 1%
Darwin 5,000 1%
Canberra 14,000 2%
Capital Cities 797,000 100%
Matusik + lmip.gov.au.  Employment projections for five years to May 2024.

Table 2 tells me: that most of the new jobs in the capitals should be in Melbourne, Sydney and then Brisbane.

Table 3: Forecast job growth over next five years by major Australian region

Region State Number of new jobs % Regional Australia
Newcastle New South Wales 32,000 12%
Wollongong New South Wales 12,000 4%
Richmond-Tweed New South Wales 9,000 3%
Geelong Victoria 12,000 4%
Bendigo Victoria 7,000 3%
Ballarat Victoria 4,000 1%
Gold Coast Queensland 47,000 17%
Sunshine Coast Queensland 22,000 8%
Cairns Queensland 10,000 4%
Mackay Queensland 8,000 3%
Toowoomba Queensland 6,000 2%
Townsville Queensland 5,000 2%
Bunbury Western Australia 5,000 2%
Launceston Tasmania 4,000 1%
Regional Australia 278,000 100%
Matusik + lmip.gov.au.  Employment projections for five years to May 2024.

Table 3 tells me: that when it comes to new regional employment, the Gold Coast, Newcastle and the Sunshine Coast are expected to dominate.

Table 4: Forecast job growth over next five years within South East Queensland

SEQld region Number of new jobs % SEQld
Sunshine Coast 22,000 13%
Moreton Bay 13,000 8%
Brisbane north 10,000 6%
Inner Brisbane 19,000 11%
Brisbane East + Redland 7,000 4%
Brisbane south 17,000 10%
Brisbane west 6,000 3%
Ipswich 19,000 11%
Logan 12,000 7%
Gold Coast 47,000 27%
SEQld 172,000 100%
Matusik + lmip.gov.au.  Employment projections for five years to May 2024.

Table 4 tells me: that when it comes to new jobs across south-east Queensland, inner Brisbane’s share is expected to be just 11%, equal to Ipswich’s projected new job creation.  The Gold and Sunshine Coast are expected to create many more jobs as are the Brisbane suburbs, especially those in the south.

End comments

I think that little will actually change – assuming restrictions ease and no further major outbreaks occur – when it comes to our working environment.  Most – if not almost all – will snap back into their established pattern and distribution of work.

Adding weight to this argument is that nearly all of my recent work-related communiques focus on returning to pre-COVID19 behaviour.

Examples include: “When can we meet?” “Looking forward to the master class.”  “Can you give us a presentation?” “We want you to meet our board and present your findings.” “Your suggested workshopping your recommendations with recent buyers is a good idea, how do we implement this.”

There has been some commentary about more people moving out of the major capitals and living in regional centres.  This has been already happening when it comes to people downsizing or retiring, but it isn’t commonplace when it comes to the most working households.  Nor, for mine, is this going to change.

I think that actually fewer new jobs will be created in regional towns over the forecast five-year period as outlined in the tables in this post.  This will especially be the case if the coronavirus impact sees regional tertiary education facilities close; less overseas tourists and our fracas with China escalates limiting the economic viability of certain resource operations.

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