As noted last week, this is the second post of three about the potential future shape of new jobs.
The same caveats apply as noted last week too.
I have combined the originally planned second and third job Missive posts together in this communique.
Several have asked me if I would post the proposed future distribution of new jobs by small area (SA4) in Australia’s major urban areas. This information will be posted next week and will close out this Missive job series.
Three tables follow.
Table 1: Average individual annual total earnings by industry type
| Industry type | Average annual total earnings |
| Higher paying jobs | |
| Mining | $137,500 |
| Utility services | $100,250 |
| Financial/Insurance services | $90,250 |
| Media/Telecommunications | $86,250 |
| Professional/Scientific services | $86,000 |
| Transport/Warehousing | $83,250 |
| Middle paying jobs | |
| Construction | $82,250 |
| Public administration | $82,000 |
| Wholesale trade | $72,000 |
| Manufacturing | $70,250 |
| Education | $64,500 |
| Real Estate | $62,500 |
| Lower paying jobs | |
| Health care | $59,000 |
| Private administration | $55,000 |
| Other services | $49,250 |
| Arts + recreation | $44,500 |
| Retail trade | $42,250 |
| Agriculture | $37,500 |
| Tourism | $30,000 |
| Average | $65,500 |
| Matusik + ABS 6302.0. Total average individual annual total earnings as at November 2019. | |
Table 1 tells me: that the highest paying job in Australia involves working in the mining industry, whilst the lowest paid work is serving tourists. As a side bar here is that there is something wrong when our teachers and medical staff get around half the brass paid to folks working in mineral resources.
Table 2: Forecast job growth over next five years by capital city + industry type
| Industry type | Number of new jobs | % Capitals |
| Higher paying jobs | ||
| Mining | 10,800 | 1% |
| Utility services | 4,600 | 1% |
| Financial/Insurance services | 16,900 | 2% |
| Media/Telecommunications | -1,100 | 0% |
| Professional/Scientific services | 154,700 | 19% |
| Transport/Warehousing | 37,200 | 5% |
| Total higher paying jobs | 223,100 | 28% |
| Middle earning jobs | ||
| Construction | 84,900 | 11% |
| Public administration | 37,000 | 5% |
| Wholesale trade | 8,000 | 1% |
| Manufacturing | -5,700 | -1% |
| Education | 89,400 | 11% |
| Real Estate | 11,800 | 1% |
| Total middle paying jobs | 225,400 | 28% |
| Lower earning jobs | ||
| Health care | 158,200 | 20% |
| Private administration | 27,100 | 3% |
| Other services | 25,000 | 3% |
| Arts + recreation | 21,600 | 3% |
| Retail trade | 54,000 | 7% |
| Agriculture | -1,300 | 0% |
| Tourism | 64,000 | 8% |
| Total lower paying jobs | 348,600 | 44% |
| Total capital cities | 797,100 | 100% |
| Matusik + lmip.gov.au. Employment projections for five years to May 2024. | ||
Table 2 tells me: that some 44% of the new jobs created in our capital cities over the next five years are expected to be lower paying ones. The share of expected higher and middle-income jobs are 28% each. The top five capital city job growth types are health care, professional/scientific services, construction, education and tourism.
Table 3: Forecast job growth over next five years, regional Australia + industry type
| Industry type | Number of new jobs | % Capitals |
| Higher paying jobs | ||
| Mining | 4,600 | 2% |
| Utility services | 2,200 | 1% |
| Financial/Insurance services | 3,500 | 1% |
| Media/Telecommunications | 500 | 0% |
| Professional/Scientific services | 17,700 | 6% |
| Transport/Warehousing | 6,600 | 2% |
| Total higher paying jobs | 35,100 | 13% |
| Middle earning jobs | ||
| Construction | 28,800 | 10% |
| Public administration | 15,100 | 5% |
| Wholesale trade | 2,500 | 1% |
| Manufacturing | 2,300 | 1% |
| Education | 39,900 | 14% |
| Real Estate | 500 | 0% |
| Total middle paying jobs | 89,100 | 32% |
| Lower earning jobs | ||
| Health care | 94,400 | 34% |
| Private administration | 7,700 | 3% |
| Other services | 13,300 | 5% |
| Arts + recreation | 5,100 | 2% |
| Retail trade | 8,400 | 3% |
| Agriculture | -2,600 | -1% |
| Tourism | 27,500 | 10% |
| Total lower paying jobs | 153,800 | 55% |
| Total capital cities | 278,000 | 100% |
| Matusik + lmip.gov.au. Employment projections for five years to May 2024. | ||
Table 3 tells me: that over half of the new work across regional Australia is expected to be in lower paying jobs. The regions are expected to create limited new higher paying jobs. The top five future job types include health care (with a high 34% of new regional jobs over the next five years), education, tourism, construction and professional/scientific services.
End comments
As noted last week there has been some commentary about more people moving out of the major capitals and living/working in regional centres.
If this eventuates it might see a change in regional employment types, but it would take wide-ranging economic reforms including decentralisation, overhaul of taxes, red tape, industrial relations and research and development incentives.
As they say, “pigs might fly”.
Yet, for mine, we will need such economic reform if we are to see a lift in the number of better paying jobs in the future. This applies to our capital cities as well.
Let’s hope that Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe thought bubble about such reforms are taken seriously.
Nevertheless, the key finding here – again reiterating my thesis – is that future work in Australia (and for that matter across much of the western world) is lower paying jobs. This changes the type of property people can afford; the way they live, travel to work and what they do in their leisure time.
For mine, new housing essentially takes two forms – small digs lodging individuals and couples near employment nodes and multiple families/unrelated people sharing accommodation in most other locales, including regional Australia.