As noted last week, this is the third post of three about the potential future shape of new jobs.
The same caveats apply as noted in my last two posts.
This post I have covered two topics – construction jobs and the proposed future distribution of new jobs by small area (SA4) in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide.
Go here to revisit the distribution of new jobs in south east Queensland.
Remember, to work out the SA4 regional boundaries, click here, and select 2016 Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4) in the ‘Choose a boundary type’ area and off you go.
Construction jobs
HomeBuilder has been released because the government knows that new construction activity is a major economic driver and employer.
I think that this scheme misses the mark, but enough has been said by me and others in this space. Except to say that why backyard homes or granny flats are excluded from this package escapes me. Such new builds go a long way to providing sensible and affordable accommodation.
Australia’s residential construction sector has weighed in estimating that new housing boosts the nation’s GDP by about 5% per year and directly employs some 134,000 people.
A recent report from the National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation has stated that every $1m spend on residential construction supports 9 jobs and about $2.9m of industry output and consumption across the economy.
I do think this multiplier is too high, as our work, based on the Queensland state govt housing strategy, found since 2018, 312 new dwellings have been created and 1,307 jobs supported, which suggest 4 jobs per new dwelling.
The overall package – a five year programme – is expected to delivery 4,000 new homes and 1,800 new jobs = 2.3 new jobs per home.
I think the latter is a more applicable multiplier.
Table 1 below is a long one and shows those areas across Australia most (and least) dependent on new construction jobs.
Table 1: Forecast construction job growth over next five years
| SA4 Region | Location | New jobs | ||
| Construction | Total jobs | % | ||
| Moreton Bay | Brisbane | 3,094 | 12,539 | 59% |
| East | Brisbane | 2,151 | 7,078 | 30% |
| South East | Tas | 186 | 618 | 30% |
| Coffs Harbour – Grafton | NSW | 979 | 3,899 | 25% |
| Richmond – Tweed | NSW | 2,334 | 9,395 | 25% |
| Hunter Valley | NSW | 2,597 | 10,573 | 25% |
| Outback (North and South) | WA | 737 | 3,097 | 24% |
| Ipswich | Brisbane | 4,465 | 19,194 | 23% |
| Far West and Orana | NSW | 571 | 2,518 | 23% |
| Logan – Beaudesert | Brisbane | 2,619 | 11,681 | 22% |
| North | Adelaide | 3,272 | 14,685 | 22% |
| Warrnambool + South West | Vic | 395 | 1,782 | 22% |
| Geelong | Vic | 2,364 | 11,502 | 21% |
| Bunbury | WA | 935 | 4,796 | 19% |
| Wheat Belt | WA | 602 | 3,095 | 19% |
| New England + North West | NSW | 832 | 4,285 | 19% |
| Mornington Peninsula | Melbourne | 1,765 | 9,266 | 19% |
| South West | Sydney | 2,918 | 15,469 | 19% |
| Outer South West | Sydney | 1,880 | 10,131 | 19% |
| Bendigo | Vic | 1,316 | 7,250 | 18% |
| South East | Melbourne | 8,856 | 49,396 | 18% |
| Launceston + North East | Tas | 678 | 4,131 | 16% |
| North East | Melbourne | 5,087 | 31,816 | 16% |
| West | Adelaide | 1,077 | 7,009 | 15% |
| Hobart | Tas | 1,171 | 7,767 | 15% |
| Parramatta | Sydney | 4,237 | 28,186 | 15% |
| South | Adelaide | 1,846 | 12,780 | 14% |
| Hume | Vic | 608 | 4,217 | 14% |
| Inner | Perth | 869 | 6,172 | 14% |
| Illawarra | NSW | 1,538 | 11,502 | 13% |
| Inner South West | Sydney | 4,711 | 35,406 | 13% |
| Latrobe – Gippsland | Vic | 995 | 7,546 | 13% |
| Canberra | ACT | 1,802 | 13,994 | 13% |
| Barossa – Yorke – Mid North | SA | 177 | 1,382 | 13% |
| North West | Vic | 328 | 2,645 | 12% |
| Outer East | Melbourne | 3,012 | 24,652 | 12% |
| Baulkham Hills + Hawkesbury | Sydney | 1,435 | 11,782 | 12% |
| West and North West | Tas | 199 | 1,666 | 12% |
| North West | Melbourne | 2,388 | 20,420 | 12% |
| Newcastle + Lake Macquarie | NSW | 2,324 | 21,082 | 11% |
| Outer West + Blue Mountains | Sydney | 1,467 | 13,329 | 11% |
| Australia | 113,662 | 1,075,045 | 11% | |
| Central + Hills | Adelaide | 838 | 8,716 | 10% |
| Central Coast | Sydney | 1,156 | 12,610 | 9% |
| Darling Downs – Maranoa | Qld | 254 | 2,812 | 9% |
| Gold Coast | Qld | 4,218 | 47,258 | 9% |
| Blacktown | Sydney | 1,701 | 19,317 | 9% |
| Inner | Melbourne | 4,096 | 47,846 | 9% |
| Northern Beaches | Sydney | 896 | 11,126 | 8% |
| Riverina | NSW | 471 | 6,094 | 8% |
| Shepparton | Vic | 340 | 4,648 | 7% |
| Cairns | Qld | 689 | 9,569 | 7% |
| Central West | NSW | 425 | 6,208 | 7% |
| West | Melbourne | 3,946 | 58,301 | 7% |
| North Sydney + Hornsby | Sydney | 1,552 | 23,236 | 7% |
| North | Brisbane | 620 | 9,476 | 7% |
| Sunshine Coast | Qld | 1,395 | 21,577 | 6% |
| West | Brisbane | 372 | 5,765 | 6% |
| Inner East | Melbourne | 911 | 14,414 | 6% |
| South | Brisbane | 997 | 16,689 | 6% |
| Ballarat | Vic | 252 | 4,293 | 6% |
| City + Inner South | Sydney | 1,844 | 32,333 | 6% |
| Inner West | Sydney | 1,032 | 19,486 | 5% |
| Ryde | Sydney | 420 | 8,148 | 5% |
| Inner City | Brisbane | 909 | 18,845 | 5% |
| Inner South | Melbourne | 1,377 | 29,915 | 5% |
| Eastern Suburbs | Sydney | 830 | 18,334 | 5% |
| Mandurah | Perth | 103 | 2,327 | 4% |
| Mid North Coast | NSW | 258 | 6,179 | 4% |
| South West | Perth | 656 | 16,851 | 4% |
| South East | Perth | 471 | 13,032 | 4% |
| Capital Region | NSW | 276 | 8,230 | 3% |
| Sutherland | Sydney | 321 | 10,760 | 3% |
| Darwin | NT | 140 | 5,067 | 3% |
| Murray | NSW | 64 | 3,992 | 2% |
| Southern Highlands – Shoalhaven | NSW | 46 | 4,349 | 1% |
| South Australia – South East | SA | 36 | 3,594 | 1% |
| Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday | Qld | 24 | 8,178 | 0% |
| Toowoomba | Qld | 8 | 5,783 | 0% |
| Outback | SA | 0 | 1,061 | 0% |
| North West | Perth | -331 | 23,568 | -1% |
| North East | Perth | -123 | 8,094 | -2% |
| Townsville | Qld | -94 | 4,971 | -2% |
| Outback | Qld | -42 | 1,724 | -2% |
| Central Queensland | Qld | -191 | 6,569 | -3% |
| Outback | NT | -67 | 1,974 | -3% |
| Wide Bay | Qld | -250 | 1,995 | -13% |
| Matusik + lmip.gov.au. Employment projections for five years to May 2024. | ||||
New jobs distribution by capital cities
Four tables follow.
Again, to revisit south east Queensland’s future job spread go here.
Table 2: Forecast job growth over next five years within Sydney
| Sydney region | Number of new jobs | % Sydney |
| Central Coast | 12,600 | 5% |
| Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury | 11,800 | 4% |
| Blacktown | 19,300 | 7% |
| City and Inner South | 32,300 | 12% |
| Eastern Suburbs | 18,300 | 7% |
| Inner South West | 35,400 | 13% |
| Inner West | 19,500 | 7% |
| North Sydney and Hornsby | 23,200 | 9% |
| Northern Beaches | 11,100 | 4% |
| Outer South West | 10,100 | 4% |
| Outer West and Blue Mountains | 13,300 | 5% |
| Parramatta | 28,200 | 10% |
| Ryde | 8,100 | 3% |
| South West | 15,500 | 6% |
| Sutherland | 10,800 | 4% |
| Sydney region | 269,500 | 100% |
| Matusik + lmip.gov.au. Employment projections for five years to May 2024. | ||
Table 3: Forecast job growth over next five years within Melbourne
| Melbourne region | Number of new jobs | % Sydney |
| Inner | 47,800 | 17% |
| Inner East | 14,400 | 5% |
| Inner South | 29,900 | 11% |
| North East | 31,800 | 11% |
| North West | 20,400 | 7% |
| Outer East | 24,700 | 9% |
| South East | 43,400 | 16% |
| West | 58,300 | 21% |
| Mornington Peninsula | 9,300 | 3% |
| Melbourne region | 280,000 | 100% |
| Matusik + lmip.gov.au. Employment projections for five years to May 2024. | ||
Table 4: Forecast job growth over next five years within Perth
| Perth region | Number of new jobs | % Sydney |
| Mandurah | 2,300 | 3% |
| Inner | 6,200 | 9% |
| North East | 8,100 | 12% |
| North West | 23,600 | 33% |
| South East | 13,000 | 19% |
| South West | 16,800 | 24% |
| Perth region | 70,000 | 100% |
| Matusik + lmip.gov.au. Employment projections for five years to May 2024. | ||
Table 5: Forecast job growth over next five years within Adelaide
| Adelaide region | Number of new jobs | % Sydney |
| Central and Hills | 8,700 | 20% |
| North | 14,700 | 34% |
| South | 12,800 | 30% |
| West | 7,000 | 16% |
| Adelaide region | 43,200 | 100% |
| Matusik + lmip.gov.au. Employment projections for five years to May 2024. | ||
These tables tell me: that Melbourne is expected to create more new jobs than Sydney over the next five years.
Also, most new jobs – around 90% – when including SEQld, Canberra and Newcastle/Wollongong – are expected to be held in our six largest urban areas.
In addition, some 70% of these new jobs are in suburban locations.
Yet many of the new big-ticket infrastructure projects being fast-tracked across the country are situated in, or focused on, inner city locations.