Name calling aside, I hope you had a great Australia Day yesterday.
We continue the ‘stuff worth knowing’ missives this post, with base case numbers regarding population and recent growth.
Three tables this post.
How this stuff can help you
When you read, hear or are told something statistically based it is helpful to have a base case to make a comparison.
This base case intel is the ‘bird’s eye’ statistical perspective – a helicopter’s view so to speak – whilst what we mostly hear or are told is from a ‘worm’s eye’ viewpoint or from personal perception.
For example, I was told over the Christmas break by a friend that Hobart was the fastest growing Australian capital city and with just under half million residents, ‘Slowbart’ was set to overtake Canberra in size.
My friend meant well but a quick review of table 1 shows he was talking bullocks.
He did make, it must be said, a somewhat amusing quip about which capital was the slowest.
Moreover, I kept on reading how regional Australia is going to take the ‘lion’s share’ of the country’s population growth in coming years. I don’t know what these peeps mean by ‘lion’s share’ but a quick Google search (whilst we still can!) suggests it means the ‘largest proportion’ or ‘major share’.
Yet tables 1 and 2 shows that 80% of the recent population growth takes place in our capitals and when you include the outer conurbations of our major capitals (Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Newcastle etc) the capital city metropolises attract 90% of the current population gains.
It will take more than Covid19 to turn this ‘Pasha Bulker’ towards regional Oz.
More concerning is the persistent claim – often used by investment sellers trying to flog Queensland housing – that the Sunshine State attracts 1,000 new interstate residents per week. I received two spruiky emails over the last week holding such statements.
Table 3 shows that this statement is inflated 2.5 times, with the most recent net interstate movement to Queensland being closer to 400 per week.
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It does help to keep this type of reference material handy. Keeping a few of the key stats in your head pays dividends too.
Why not revisit the tables before your next driving staycation and impress your friends and relations when someone asks, ‘how many people live here?’ Instead of the usual guesswork, you can answer with some authority. Bonus points galore.
And if you were smart you would raise the question and make a wager on the closest answer.
See the Matusik Missive can help you in numerous ways!
Next Tuesday we will cover housing buyer segmentation base case reference stats.