House price outlook #3

I have covered this topic a few times already this year.

Our analysis is proving to be a reliable indicator of short-term house price growth.

In May I suggested that Australian house prices could rise by 14% for fiscal 2021 and by 25% for the year ending September 2021.

In August we found out that median house prices rose 19% for the twelve months ending June 2021.  That post we suggested that house prices could rise by 38% for calendar 2021.  Our anticipated 25% annual lift by September was still looking likely.

This post, we now know that Australian house prices rose 22% during the twelve months ending September (compared to our 25% forecast) and the revised official lending statistics suggest that house prices could now rise by 31% for calendar 2021 (down from our projected 38%) and median house values appear set to rise by 16% for the year ending March quarter 2022.

So, house price growth is expected to continue over the next six months with the pace of escalation slowing down early next year.

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