House price outlook #5

As the heading suggests I have covered this topic several times in the recent past.

Our analysis is proving to be a reliable indicator of short-term house price growth.

We know that Australian house prices rose 18% during the 12 months to March 2022 and the just released official lending statistics suggest that house prices could now rise by 12% for fiscal 2022 and median house values appear set to rise by just 5% for the year ending September 2022.

So, house price growth is expected to continue – despite the recent lift in interest rates – over the next couple of months but then start to fall (slightly) on a quarterly growth basis into the September quarter.

In simple terms and from the bird’s eye view,  if you bought a house in June last year, it could be worth 12% more come this June and a home bought around September 2021 could have grown by 5% more in value by September this year.

But if you bought a house this June, then it could be potentially worth 2% less within three months’ time.  See table 1.

Two charts are also included in this post.


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