House price forecast #7

We know that Australian house prices rose 2.3% during the 12 months to September 2022.

Our last post on this subject estimated that house prices could rise by 4% for the year ending September 2022.  Our model was a little bit out.

Splitting hairs if you ask me, especially against the wild forecasts that are currently being thrown about.

Based on the 18.5% annual fall in housing finance for the year ending September and for calendar 2022, we are forecasting a 1.0% fall in median house prices across Australia.

Looking further ahead we expect an 8.0% fall in median house values across the country for the year ending March 2023.

In simple terms, if you bought a house in March this year, it could be worth about 8% less in March next year.

So, in March this year the median Australian house was $1.074 million.  By the end of March next year, we think the median selling price would be about $988,000.

This would be a fall of about $86,000.

Two charts are included in this post.


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