One thing that is missing in today’s price point discussions is price range.
Find below three tables which outlines what is going on – by way of example – across the southeast corner of Queensland.
The same lessons apply elsewhere.
When median or more so, average, prices shift there are winning and losers.
Some market segments i.e., price ranges, do better, whilst others do not.
Let’s look at what is happening in each selected market.
On the Sunshine Coast, the house market peaked with a median sales price of $1million in March quarter last year. Since then, median values have fallen by $90,000 or 9%.
The sale distribution by price range shows that the Sunshine Coast housing market is softest at the top-end and especially for homes listed for sale over $1.5 million.
The fall in asking prices at the top-end is responsible for much of the drop – so far – in the median house price across the Sunshine Coast last year and in particular during the December quarter.
Remember the median house price on the Sunshine Coast was just $640,000 at the start of the Covid pandemic.
The core detached housing market remains strong – being priced between $500,000 and $1million. This market segment is gaining market share.
Looking forward sale volumes are falling across the Sunshine Coast, whilst listings are increasing. There is now about 14 months of resale housing supply on the market.
This is likely to see further price falls and especially across the upper end of the Sunshine Coast housing market during the first half of 2023.
The Brisbane detached house market peaked during the June quarter last year with a median sales price of $795,000. Since then, median values have fallen by $50,000 or by about 6%.
Like the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane’s softest market is also the top-end, and this too has driven much of recent change in median house values.
Some price falls where to be expected given that median house price across the Brisbane region was just $550,000 at the start of the Covid pandemic. Median house values rose by $245,000 or 44% between early 2020 and mid 2022.
And yet – like the Sunshine Coast – the core detached housing market remains strong. This market segment is also gaining market share.
Looking forward whilst sale volumes are falling across Brisbane, listings are also starting to decline. There is just six months of resale housing supply on the market.
If this trend continues the recent house price falls – and particularly for houses listed for sale between $500,000 and $1million – are probably over.
For mine median Brisbane house values are likely to start rising, slowly, as we progress through calendar 2023.
The Gold Coast also peaked with a median house value around $1million. Since June last year the median sales price has fallen by just $35,000 or by around 4%.
In contrast to the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane the top end of the Gold Coast housing market remains strong. House sales over $1.5million are still gaining market share.
The ‘middle’ detached housing market – in this case being priced between $750,000 and $1million – is also gaining market share.
Looking forward whilst sale volumes are falling across the Gold Coast, listings are also declining in a similar fashion to Brisbane. There is now just eight months of resale housing supply on the market.
With the same caveat as outlined for Brisbane, Gold Coast housing market values are likely to plateau soon and should start to rise during the second half of 2023.
The median house price on the Gold Coast was just $660,000 during the March quarter 2020. Median house values have lifted just under 50% since the beginning of 2020.
A fuller picture
For mine, any housing market commentary needs to embrace not only median values but the distribution of sales by price range plus the number of overall sales and number of homes listed for sale.
This detail would help give the audience a fuller picture of what is going on.
And 2023 starts with a bang!
Apologises as I announced late last year that we would be back posting from last Tuesday. But paid work got in the way.
This year has started with a bang, with five project commissions due before Australia Day.
Three down and two more to go.
This work helps developers, financiers and other involved parties reduce the project’s sales risk. This is principally done by my firm providing a ‘better market match’.
Our recommendations cover buyer/renter details, product types, design layouts, product sizing, parking + other amenities, pricing, potential rents, market penetration + rates of sale plus marketing direction.
Our work is based on a full basket of intel on the relevant housing market, its future direction and the subject development’s competition.
Why not contact me to find out more.
We can help you build a better mousetrap.
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